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Michael Runge


USGS Professional Page:

Areas of Study

Adaptive Management for Threatened and Endangered Species

Modeling, Estimation, and Adaptive Management of Florida Manatees

Modeling, Estimation, and Adaptive Management of Golden and Bald Eagle Fatalities on Wind Facilities

Structured Decision Making

Structured Decision Making: Methods, Applications, and Capacity-Building



Runge, M. C., J. C. Stroeve, A. P. Barrett, and E. McDonald-Madden. 2016. Detecting failure of climate predictions. Nature Climate Change Online Early May 30 Abstract

Fleishman, E., M. Burgman, M. C. Runge, R. S. Schick, and S. Kraus. 2016. Expert elicitation of population-level effects of disturbance. Pages 295-302 in Arthur N. Popper and Anthony Hawkins, editors. The Effects of Noise on Aquatic Life II. Advances in Experimental Medicine and Biology 875 Springer, New York, NY. xxx, 1292 pp. Abstract

Probert, W. J. M., K. Shea, C. J. Fonnesbeck, M. C. Runge, T. M. Carpenter, S. Dürr, M. G. Garner, N. Harvey, M. A. Stevenson, C. T. Webb, M. Werkman, M. J. Tildesley, and M. J. Ferrari. 2016. Decision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control: Objectives matter. Epidemics 15:10-19. Abstract

Wilson, R. S., D. J. Hardisty, R. S. Epanchin-Niell, M. C. Runge, K. L. Cottingham, D. L. Urban, L. A. Maguire, A. Hastings, P. J. Mumby, and D. P. C. Peters. 2016. A typology of time-scale mismatches and behavioral interventions to diagnose and solve conservation problems. Conservation Biology 30(1):42-49. Abstract


Runge, M. C., K. E. LaGory, K. Russell, J. R. Balsom, R. A. Butler, L. G. Coggins Jr., K. A. Grantz, J. Hayse, I. Hlohowskyj, J. Korman, J. E. May, D. J. O'Rourke, L. A. Poch, J. R. Prairie, J. C. VanKuiken, R. A. Van Lonkhuyzen, D. R. Varyu, B. T. Verhaaren, T. D. Veselka, N. T. Williams, K. K. Wuthrich, C. B. Yackulic, R. P. Billerbeck, and G. W. Knowles. 2015. Decision analysis to support development of the Glen Canyon Dam long-term experimental and management plan. Scientific Investigations Report 2015–5176:doi:10.3133/sir20155176. U.S. Geological Survey. 64 pp. Abstract

Runge, M. C., C. A. Langtimm, J. Martin, and C. J. Fonnesbeck. 2015. Status and threats analysis for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), 2012. Open-File Report 201-1083. U.S. Geological Survey. 33 pp. Abstract

Armsworth, P. R., E. R. Larson, S. T. Jackson, D. F. Sax, P. Simonin, B. Blossey, N. Green, M. L. Klein, L. Lester, T. H. Ricketts, M. C. Runge, and M. R. Shaw. 2015. Are conservation organizations configured for effective adaptation to global change? Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 13(3):163-169. Abstract

Maxwell, S. L., J. R. Rhodes, M. C. Runge, H. P. Possingham, C. F. Ng, and E. Mcdonald-Madden. 2015. How much is new information worth? Evaluating the financial benefit of resolving management uncertainty. Journal of Applied Ecology 52(1):12-20. Abstract

New, L., E. Bjerre, B. Millsap, M. C. Otto, and M. C. Runge. 2015. A collision risk model to predict avian fatalities at wind facilities: An Example Using Golden Eagles, Aquila chrysaetos. PLoS ONE 10(7):e0130978. Abstract

Regehr, E. V., R. R. Wilson, K. D. Rode, and M. C. Runge. 2015. Resilience and risk—A demographic model to inform conservation planning for polar bears. Open File Report 2015-1029. U.S. Geological Survey. vi, 56 pp. Abstract

Thogmartin, W. E., C. A. Sanders-Reed, J. A. Szymanski, P. C. McKann, L. Pruitt, R. A. King, M. C. Runge, and R. E. Russell. 2015. Erratum to "White-nose syndrome is likely to extirpate the endangered Indiana bat over large parts of its range" [Biol. Conserv. 160, (2013), 162-172] . Biological Conservation 191:845. Abstract

Wilson, R. S., D. J. Hardisty, R. S. Epanchin-Niell, M. C. Runge, K. L. Cottingham, D. L. Urban, L. A. Maguire, A. Hastings, P. J. Mumby, and D. P. C. Peters. 2015. A typology of time-scale mismatches and behavioral interventions to diagnose and solve conservation problems. Conservation Biology Online Early. Abstract


Runge, M. C. and T. Walshe. 2014. Identifying Objectives and Alternative Actions to Frame a Decision Problem. Pages 29-43 in G. Guntenspergen, editor. Application of Threshold Concepts in Natural Resource Decision Making. Springer, New York. i-vi, 327 pp. Abstract

Eaton, M. J., J. Martin, J. D. Nichols, C. McIntyre, M. C. McCluskie, J. A. Schmutz, B. L. Lubow, and M. C. Runge. 2014. Application of Threshold Concepts to Ecological Management Problems: Occupancy of Golden Eagles in Denali National Park, Alaska. Pages 67-86 in Glenn R. Guntenspergen, editor. Application of Threshold Concepts in Natural Resource Decision Making. Springer, NewYork. i-vi, 327 pp. Abstract

Mills, M., S. Nicol, J. A. Wells, J. J. Lahoz-Monfort, B. Wintle, M. Bode, M. Wardrop, T. Walshe, W. J. M. Probert, M. C. Runge, H. P. Possingham, and E. M. Madden. 2014. Minimizing the Cost of Keeping Options Open for Conservation in a Changing Climate. Conservation Biology 28(3):646-653. Abstract

Osnas, E. E., M. C. Runge, B. J. Mattsson, J. Austin, G. S. Boomer, R. G. Clark, P. Devers, J. M. Eadie, E. V. Lonsdorf, and B. G. Tavernia. 2014. Managing harvest and habitat as integrated components. Wildfowl (Special Issue No. 4):305-328. Abstract

Shea, K., M. J. Tildesley, M. C. Runge, C. J. Fonnesbeck, and M. J. Ferrari. 2014. Adaptive management and the value of information: Learning via intervention in epidemiology . PLoS Biology 12(10):e1001970. Abstract


Runge, M. C. 2013. Active adaptive management for reintroduction of an animal population. Journal of Wildlife Management 77(6):1135–1144. Abstract

Runge, M. C., J. B. Grand, and M. S. Mitchell. 2013. Structured decision making. Pages 51-72 in Paul R. Krausman and James W. Cain, editors. Wildlife Management and conservation: Contemporary principles and practices. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, Maryland. 360 pp. Abstract

Converse, S. J., C. T. Moore, M. J. Folk, and M. C. Runge. 2013. A matter of tradeoffs: Reintroduction as a multiple objective decision. Journal of Wildlife Management 77(6):1145–1156. Abstract

Regan, T. J., B. L. Taylor, G. G. Thompson, J. F. Cochran, K. Ralls, M. C. Runge, and R. Merrick. 2013. Testing decision rules for categorizing species' extinction risk to help develop quantitative listing criteria for the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Conservation Biology 27(4):821–831. Abstract

Thogmartin, W. E., C. A. Sanders-Reed, J. A. Szymanski, P. C. McKann, L. Pruitt, R. A. King, M. C. Runge, and R. E. Russell. 2013. White-nose syndrome is likely to extirpate the endangered Indiana bat over large parts of its range. Biological Conservation 160:162-172. Abstract


Marcot, B. G., M. P. Thompson, M. C. Runge, F. R. Thompson, S. McNulty, D. Cleaves, M. Tomosy, L. A. Fisher, and A. Bliss. 2012. Recent advances in applying decision science to managing national forests. Forest Ecology and Management 285(1):123-132. Abstract

Mattsson, B. J., M. C. Runge, J. H. Devries, G. S. Boomer, J. M. Eadie, D. A. Haukos, J. P. Fleskes, D. N. Koons, W. E. Thogmartin, and R. G. Clark. 2012. A modeling framework for integrated harvest and habitat management of North American waterfowl: Case-study of northern pintail metapopulation dynamics . Ecological Modelling 225:146-158. Abstract

McCarthy, M. A., D. P. Armstrong, and M. C. Runge. 2012. Adaptive management of reintroduction. Pages 256-289 in John G. Ewen, Doug P. Armstrong, Kevin A. Parker, and Philip J. Seddon, editors. Reintroduction Biology: Integrating Science and Management. Conservation science and practice series. Wiley-Blackwell, Hoboken, NJ. xxv, 499 pp. Abstract

Moore, C. T., S. J. Converse, M. J. Folk, M. C. Runge, and S. A. Nesbitt. 2012. Evaluating release alternatives for a long-lived bird species under uncertainty about long-term demographic rates. Pages S339-S353 in Michael Schaub and William L. Kendall, editors. Proceedings EURING Analytical Conference 2009: Estimation, modelling and conservation of vertebrate populations using marked individuals. Journal of Ornithology 152(Supplement 2) Abstract

Moore, J. L. and M. C. Runge. 2012. Combining structured decision making and value-of-information analyses to identify robust management strategies. Conservation Biology 26(5):810-820. Abstract


Runge, M. C. 2011. An introduction to adaptive management for threatened and endangered species. Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management 2(2):220-233. Abstract

Runge, M. C., E. Bean, D. R. Smith, and S. Kokos. 2011. Non-native fish control below Glen Canyon Dam - Report from a structured decision-making project. Open-File Report 2011-1012. U.S. Geological Survey. vi, 75 pp. Abstract

Runge, M. C., S. J. Converse, and J. E. Lyons. 2011. Which uncertainty? Using expert elicitation and expected value of information to design an adaptive program. Biological Conservation 144(4):1214-1223. Abstract

Conroy, M. J., M. C. Runge, J. D. Nichols, K. W. Stodola, and R. J. Cooper. 2011. Conservation in the face of climate change: The roles of alternative models, monitoring, and adaptation in confronting and reducing uncertainty. Biological Conservation 144(4):1204-1213. Abstract

Converse, S. J., K. J. Shelley, S. Morey, J. Chan, A. LaTier, C. Scafidi, D. T. Crouse, and M. C. Runge. 2011. A decision-analytic approach to the optimal allocation of resources for endangered species consultation. Biological Conservation 144(1):319-329. Abstract

Johnson, F. A., D. R. Breininger, B. W. Duncan, J. D. Nichols, M. C. Runge, and B. K. Williams. 2011. A Markov decision process for managing habitat for Florida scrub-jays. Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management 2(2):234-246. Abstract , PDF

Martin, J., P. L. Fackler, J. D. Nichols, B. C. Lubow, M. J. Eaton, M. C. Runge, B. M. Stith, and C. A. Langtimm. 2011. Structured decision making as a proactive approach to dealing with sea level rise in Florida. Climatic Change 107(1-2):185-202. Abstract

Martin, J., P. L. Fackler, J. D. Nichols, M. C. Runge, C. L. McIntyre, B. L. Lubow, M. C. McCluskie, and J. A. Schmutz. 2011. An adaptive-management framework for optimal control of hiking near Golden Eagle nests in Denali National Park. Conservation Biology 25(2):316-323. Abstract

McDonald-Madden, E., M. C. Runge, H. P. Possingham, and T. G. Martin. 2011. Optimal timing for managed relocation of species faced with climate change. Nature Climate Change 1(5):261-265. Abstract

McGowan, C. P., M. C. Runge, and M. A. Larson. 2011. Incorporating parametric uncertainty into population viability analysis models. Biological Conservation 144(5):1400-1408. Abstract

McGowan, C. P., M. R. Ryan, M. C. Runge, J. J. Millspaugh, and J. F. Cochrane. 2011. The role of demographic compensation theory in incidental take assessments for endangered species. Biological Conservation 144(2):730-737. Abstract

Moore, C. T., C. J. Fonnesbeck, K. Shea, K. J. Lah, P. M. McKenzie, L. C. Ball, M. C. Runge, and H. M. Alexander. 2011. An adaptive decision framework for the conservation of a threatened plant. Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management 2(2):247-261. Abstract , PDF

Moore, J. L., M. C. Runge, B. L. Webber, and J. R. U. Wilson. 2011. Contain or eradicate? Optimizing the management goal for Australian acacia invasions in the face of uncertainty. Diversity and Distributions 17(5):1047-1059. Abstract

Probert, W. J. M., C. E. Hauser, E. McDonald-Madden, M. C. Runge, P. W. J. Baxter, H. P. Possingham, and H. P. Possingham. 2011. Managing and learning with multiple models: Objectives and optimization algorithms. Biological Conservation 144(4):1237-1245. Abstract

Tyre, A. J., J. T. Peterson, S. J. Converse, T. Bogich, D. Miller, M. Post van der Burg, C. Thomas, R. Thompson, J. Wood, D. C. Brewer, and M. C. Runge. 2011. Adaptive management of bull trout populations in the Lemhi Basin. Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management 2(2):262-281. Abstract , PDF


Burgman, M. A., B. A. Wintle, C. A. Thompson, A. Moilanen, M. C. Runge, and Y. Ben-Haim. 2010. Reconciling uncertain costs and benefits in Bayes nets for invasive species management. Risk Analysis 30(2):277-284. Abstract

Hunter, C. M., H. Caswell, M. C. Runge, E. V. Regehr, S. C. Amstrup, and I. Stirling. 2010. Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis. Ecology 91(10):2883-2897. Abstract

Martin, J., A. F. O'Connell, Jr., W. L. Kendall, M. C. Runge, T. R. Simons, A. H. Waldstein, S. A. Schulte, S. J. Converse, G. W. Smith, T. Pinion, M. Rikard, and E. F. Zipkin. 2010. Optimal control of native predators. Biological Conservation 143(7):1751-1758. Abstract

McDonald-Madden, E., W. J. M. Probert, C. E. Hauser, M. C. Runge, H. P. Possingham, M. E. Jones, J. L. Moore, T. M. Rout, P. A. Vesk, and B. A. Wintle. 2010. Active adaptive conservation of threatened species in the face of uncertainty. Ecological Applications 20(5):1476-1489. Abstract

Morgan, M. R., C. Norment, and M. C. Runge. 2010. Evaluation of a reproductive index for estimating productivity of grassland breeding birds. Auk 127(1):86-93. Abstract

Rice, M. B., D. A. Haukos, J. A. Dubovsky, and M. C. Runge. 2010. Continental survival and recovery rates of northern pintails using band-recovery data. Journal of Wildlife Management 74(4):778-787. Abstract

Wintle, B. A., M. C. Runge, and S. A. Bekessy. 2010. Allocating monitoring effort in the face of unknown unknowns. Ecology Letters 13(11):1325-1337. Abstract


Runge, M. C., J. R. Sauer, M. L. Avery, B. F. Blackwell, and M. D. Koneff. 2009. Assessing allowable take of migratory birds. Journal of Wildlife Management 73(4):556-565. Abstract

Martin, J., M. C. Runge, J. D. Nichols, B. C. Lubow, and W. L. Kendall. 2009. Structured decision making as a conceptual framework to identify thresholds for conservation and management. Ecological Applications 19(5):1079-1090. Abstract

Schwarz, L. K. and M. C. Runge. 2009. Hierarchical Bayesian analysis to incorporate age uncertainty in growth curve analysis and estimates of age from length: Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 66(10):1775-789. Abstract

Szymanski, J. A., M. C. Runge, M. J. Parkin, and M. Armstrong. 2009. White-nose Syndrome management: Report on structured decision making initiative. . U.S Fish and Wildlife Service, Fort Snelling, MN. 51 pp. PDF


Kery, M. and J. A. Royle. 2008. Hierarchical Bayes estimation of species richness and occupancy in spatially replicated surveys. Journal of Applied Ecology 45(2):589-598. Abstract

Kery, M., J. A. Royle, and H. Schmid. 2008. Importance of sampling design and analysis in animal population studies: a comment on Sergio et al. Journal of Applied Ecology 45(3):981-986. Abstract

Koneff, M. D., J. A. Royle, M. C. Otto, J. S. Wortham, and J. K. Bidwell. 2008. A double-observer method to estimate detection rate during aerial waterfowl surveys. Journal of Wildlife Management 72(7):1641-649. Abstract

Lyons, J. E., M. C. Runge, H. P. Laskowski, and W. L. Kendall. 2008. Monitoring in the context of structured decision-making and adaptive management. Journal of Wildlife Management 72(8):1683-1692. Abstract

Nichols, J. D. and M. C. Runge. 2008. Toward a comprehensive decision framework for reintroduced populations. Avian Biology Research 1(1):38 (abstract). Abstract

Royle, J. A. 2008. Hierarchical modeling of cluster size in wildlife surveys. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics 13(1):23-36. Abstract

Royle, J. A. 2008. Modeling individual effects in the Cormack-Jolly-Seber Model: A state-space formulation. Biometrics 64(2):364-370. Abstract

Royle, J. A. and R. M. Dorazio. 2008. Hierarchical modeling and inference in ecology: The analysis of data from populations, metapopulations and communities. . Academic Press, San Diego, California. xviii, 444 pp. Abstract

Royle, J. A., T. R. Stanley, and P. M. Lukacs. 2008. Statistical modeling and inference from carnivore survey data. Pages 293-312 in Robert A. Long, Paula MacKay, Justina Ray, and William Zielinski, editors. Noninvasive survey methods for carnivores. Island Press, Washington, DC. viii, 385 pp. Abstract

Royle, J. A. and K. V. Young. 2008. A hierarchical model for spatial capture-recapture data. Ecology 89(8):2281-2289. Abstract

Spoelstra, J. A., R. A. Stein, J. A. Royle, and E. A. Marschall. 2008. Movement of reservoir-stocked riverine fish between tailwaters and rivers. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 137(5):1530-1542. Abstract

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