| | Accession Number | 5001880 |
| | Title | Development of a spatially-explicit, individual-based model to simulate Kirtland's |
| | warbler population dynamics |
| | Project Description | The Kirtlands Warbler Recovery Team requested that a population viability analysis (PVA) model |
| | be developed as a recovery tool for this endangered species. Both the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) |
| | and the Michigan Department of Natural Resources were updating their Habitat Management |
| | Plans, and wanted a spatially-explicit tool to test the impact of alternative management scenarios |
| | on the warbler population. Dr.s Jonathan Bart and Carol Bocetti were asked to develop the model. |
| | Model development depended on reliable estimates of warbler demography. After the preliminary |
| | evaluation of the 1986-1992 capture-resighting data set (analysis funded by USFS), it was |
| | determined that all demographic parameters were precisely estimated except dispersal rates. An |
| | additional three years of field work were planned to obtain precise estimates of dispersal rates by |
| | age and sex. The Michigan Department of Military Affairs funded the field work portion of the study |
| | that was conducted from 1995-1997. The USGS- Biological Resources Division funded the model |
| | development. The objectives of this study were: 1) to construct a spatially-explicit, |
| | individual-based model that simulates Kirtlands warbler population dynamics and habitat |
| | conditions through time, 2) to validate the model by comparing simulated population estimates to |
| | known population estimates through time, 3) to use the model to assist resource managers in |
| | evaluating alternative management scenerios, and 4) to estimate age-specific and sex-specific |
| | dispersal rates. |
| | Keywords | alternative management options, endangered species, individual-based model, kirtlands warblers, |
| | land use planning, population dynamics, population viability analysis, probability of extinction, |
| | spatially-explicit model, |
| | Principal | Carol I Bocetti, USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center: carol_bocetti@usgs.gov; Jonathan R |
| | Investigators | Bart, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Snake River Field Station: |
| | jbart@eagle.idbsu.edu; Cameron B Kepler, USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center: |
| | cameron_kepler@usgs.gov; Paul W Sykes, USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center: ; John R |
| | Probst, North Central Forest Experiment Station: ; |
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