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Accession Number 5001880

Title Development of a spatially-explicit, individual-based model to simulate Kirtland's

warbler population dynamics

Project Description The Kirtlands Warbler Recovery Team requested that a population viability analysis (PVA) model

be developed as a recovery tool for this endangered species. Both the U.S. Forest Service (USFS)

and the Michigan Department of Natural Resources were updating their Habitat Management

Plans, and wanted a spatially-explicit tool to test the impact of alternative management scenarios

on the warbler population. Dr.s Jonathan Bart and Carol Bocetti were asked to develop the model.

Model development depended on reliable estimates of warbler demography. After the preliminary

evaluation of the 1986-1992 capture-resighting data set (analysis funded by USFS), it was

determined that all demographic parameters were precisely estimated except dispersal rates. An

additional three years of field work were planned to obtain precise estimates of dispersal rates by

age and sex. The Michigan Department of Military Affairs funded the field work portion of the study

that was conducted from 1995-1997. The USGS- Biological Resources Division funded the model

development. The objectives of this study were: 1) to construct a spatially-explicit,

individual-based model that simulates Kirtlands warbler population dynamics and habitat

conditions through time, 2) to validate the model by comparing simulated population estimates to

known population estimates through time, 3) to use the model to assist resource managers in

evaluating alternative management scenerios, and 4) to estimate age-specific and sex-specific

dispersal rates.

Keywords alternative management options, endangered species, individual-based model, kirtlands warblers,

land use planning, population dynamics, population viability analysis, probability of extinction,

spatially-explicit model,

Principal Carol I Bocetti, USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center:; Jonathan R

Investigators Bart, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Snake River Field Station:; Cameron B Kepler, USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center:; Paul W Sykes, USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center: ; John R

Probst, North Central Forest Experiment Station: ;

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