| | Accession Number | 5005306 |
| | Title | Modeling, estimation, and adaptive management of manatees |
| | Project Description | Managers making decisions about the endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus |
| | latirostris) need to be able to integrate multiple sources of data into their decision process. To do |
| | this, they need models of population dynamics, tools for statistical estimation of life-history |
| | parameters, and an adaptive framework for this integration.To assess status, evaluate trends, and |
| | make predictions about the effects of management actions, managers need synthetic models for |
| | manatee population dynamics. We will develop stage-structured, stochastic population models for |
| | the four manatee sub-populations, incorporating appropriate expressions of uncertainty about the |
| | structure and parameters of the models. We will work with management agencies to use these |
| | models for status assessment, population viability analysis, and evaluation of potential |
| | management actions.A critical aspect of effective model development is having unbiased and |
| | precise estimates of life-history parameters in the model. We will continue to develop new |
| | statistical tools for analysis of manatee data, and work with other manatee scientists to |
| | implement the best analytical tools available to estimate key population parameters.While there |
| | are many sources of data about manatee ecology and population dynamics, managers have not |
| | had a comprehensive framework for integrating this monitoring data into their decision processes. |
| | We will develop applications of adaptive management for manatee management problems. Two |
| | applications have already been identified:(1) Manatees have shown a strong biotic response to |
| | environmental change, by using power plant effluents to extend their winter range northward. With |
| | the anticipated changes in the power industry brought about by deregulation, and the possible |
| | closing of a number of aging once-through-cooling plants, there is concern about how manatees |
| | will respond to this new change in their environment. The Manatee Warm-water Task Force is |
| | seeking to develop an adaptive structure for reducing uncertainty and evaluating potential |
| | management actions. We will guide the development of this adaptive framework, build models to |
| | support it, and advise agencies on integrated monitoring design.(2) The Fish and Wildlife Service, |
| | under the Marine Mammal Protection Act, is obligated to promulgate rules regarding incidental |
| | take of manatees resulting from government activities related to watercraft and watercraft access |
| | facilities. We will develop models to determine a biologically sound level of human-related effects |
| | that meet the ônegligible impactö standard, and will work with FWS to embed this model in an |
| | adaptive framework for assessing and evaluating management decisions related to this issue |
| | Keywords | adaptive management, estimation, manatee, negligible impact, population viability analysis, power |
| | industry, stochastic population model, |
| | Principal | Michael C Runge, USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center: michael_runge@usgs.gov; William L |
| | Investigators | Kendall, USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center: william_kendall@usgs.gov; James D Nichols, |
| | USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center: jim_nichols@usgs.gov; |
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