| Patuxent Science Meeting 2006 Poster Abstract |
| | Spatial models of Northern Bobwhite populations for conservation |
| | planning in the West Gulf coastal plain |
| | Twedt DJ, Wilson RR, Keister AS |
| | Since 1980, northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) suffered a 3.9% range-wide annual |
| | population decline. Within the West Gulf Coastal Plain Bird Conservation Region in the south- |
| | central United States, populations of this quail species have declined 6.8% annually. These |
| | dramatic declines have sparked numerous recommendations for land use change and prompted |
| | implementation of various conservation practices. However, to effectively reverse population |
| | declines and restore northern bobwhite to their former populations, habitat conservation and |
| | management efforts must target establishment and maintenance of sustainable populations. To |
| | provide guidance for conservation and restoration of northern bobwhite in the West Gulf Coastal |
| | Plain, we modeled their spatial distribution using landscape characteristics derived from 1992 |
| | National Land Cover Data (NLCD) and bird detections, from 1990 to 1994, along 10-stop |
| | Breeding Bird Survey route segments. Four landscape metrics influenced northern bobwhite: |
| | abundance was greater in areas with more grassland and areas where there was increased |
| | aggregation of agricultural lands, but quail were less abundant in areas with increased density of |
| | land cover edge and grassland edge. Using these landscape metrics, we projected the |
| | abundance and spatial distribution of northern bobwhite across the entire West Gulf Coastal |
| | Plain. Predicted populations closely approximated abundances estimated from a different cadre |
| | of concurrently collected data. Our model predictions did not accurately reflect bobwhite |
| | detections along species-specific call-count routes in Arkansas and Louisiana. Using the same |
| | methods, we also projected northern bobwhite population distribution circa 1980 based on Land |
| | Use Land Cover (LULC) data and bird survey data from 1978 to 1982. We compared our 1980 |
| | projections with our 1992 estimate of 1992 spatial abundance to identify areas of population |
| | change. Additionally, we used our projection of the spatial distribution and abundance of |
| | bobwhite to assess population stability. These projections provide needed guidance for |
| | targeting habitat conservation and rehabilitation efforts for restoration of northern bobwhite in the |
| | Friday, September 22, 2006 |