| Patuxent Science Meeting 2006 Poster Abstract |
| | Predicting the response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise |
| | Guntenspergen GR, Cahoon DR |
| | Global average eustatic sea level is projected to rise under all emission scenarios used by the |
| | Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These sea level rise models have been |
| | used in combination with coastal elevation data to estimate that a 1 meter rise in sea level |
| | could reduce coastal wetlands in the United States by 26 to 66 percent. These low-lying lands |
| | provide important habitat for plant and animal species and over US $12 trillion in ecosystem |
| | services world-wide. Lidar imagery or detailed elevation surveys have historically been combined |
| | with projected rates of sea level rise to assess the vulnerability of coastal wetlands. This |
| | approach has not included the potential for coastal wetlands to respond to increases in sea- |
| | level rise. We used new technology to understand the linkages and feedback effects that control |
| | habitat stability of coastal wetlands, and the specific biological and physical processes that |
| | determine how wetland surface elevations respond to changes in relative sea level. We illustrate |
| | this approach with work from a site in the Mid-Atlantic (Blackwater NWR) and provide a |
| | research strategy which is being used to develop a predictive capacity to forecast future |
| | responses of coastal wetlands to changes in external forcing functions (i.e. sea level rise, |
| | nutrients, CO2). |
| | Friday, September 22, 2006 |