Status and Trends of Biological Resources Program

Modeling Patterns and Dynamics of Species Occurrence

10-14 December 2007; 2:30-4:30 EST

An introductory workshop presented by conference call and the web

Instructors:
     Darryl MacKenzie,   Proteus Wildlife Research Consultants
     Jim Nichols,   USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center

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| USGS Status & Trends Program

The presence or absence of a species across a set of landscape units is a fundamental concept used widely in ecology (e.g., species range or distribution, epidemiology, habitat modeling, resource selection probability functions, as a monitoring metric, metapopulation studies, biodiversity and species co-occurrence). An important sampling issue, however, is that a species may not always be detected when present at a landscape unit. This will result in "false absences" causing parameter estimates to be biased if unaccounted for, possibly leading to misleading results and conclusions, even with moderate levels of imperfect detection.

This introductory workshop will cover many of the latest methods for modeling patterns and dynamics of species occurrence in a landscape while accounting for the imperfect detection of the species. Participants will be introduced to the basic methods of analysis with worked examples and a strong emphasis on study design issues. Due to limited time there will be no software demonstrations or class exercises. While primarily aimed at the beginner and intermediate level, more experienced researchers will also benefit from attending.

The course is open to all who are interested, but we may have to limit the number of participants. There is no charge for the course, but you will need to call our phone bridge in Iowa long distance. Please register so we can send you more information and updates. While on the conference call, you will be able to see the PowerPoint slides over the web. Only a telephone, a computer with a browser and an internet connection are required. A high speed internet connection is helpful but not required, as you can download the PowerPoints ahead of time and watch them during the conference call.

Darryl is also offering in-person workshops you may be interested in.

To Participate

For general enquires about the content of the workshop please email darryl@proteus.co.nz .
For registration enquires please contact Paul Geissler (Paul_Geissler@usgs.gov, 301-497-5780)


Schedule

The short course will consist of 5 2-hour SESSION run daily during 10-14 December 2007, 2:30pm - 4:30 pm EST.
2:30 pm EST = 1:30 pm CST = 12:30 pm MST = 11:30 am PST = 10:30 am AKST = 9:30 am HST = 8:30 am NZDT

SESSION 1 - December 10 Slides
Background: inferences about animal populations
- why estimate stuff (science, conservation/management)
  o science
      * role of estimation in conduct of science
      * generation of system dynamics
      * inference from pattern vs. process
  o conservation/management
      * roles of estimation in conduct of conservation/,management
- what to estimate
  o dictated by answer(s) to "why?" question
  o possible state variables (abundance, occupancy, species richness)
     and associated vital rates
- how to estimate: basic principles
  o geographic variation
  o detectability

occupancy: relevance to ecology and conservation
- Classes of ecological questions
  o geographic range
  o habitat relationships and resource selection
  o metapopulation dynamics
  o large-scale monitoring
  o multispecies inferences
- Conservation/management
  o Status assessment for listing decisions
  o Disease modeling

Statistical background
- concepts and notations
- covariate modeling and odds ratios
- hypothesis testing
- model selection and multimodel inference

SESSION 2 - December 11 Slides
Single-season model
- basic sampling situation (data type)
- model history and development
- missing observations
- covariates
- model assumptions
- dealing with heterogeneity
- small sample/finite population inference
- modeling spatial correlation in occupancy

SESSION 3 - December 12 Slides
Single-season study design
- site selection
- allocation of effort
- design comparisons
- survey timing
- miscellaneous issues
- covariates

SESSION 4 - December 13 Slides
Multiple-season model
- basic sampling situation (data type)
- model history and development
  o implicit dynamics
  o explicit dynamics
- missing observations
- covariates
- alternative parameterizations
- characterizing occupancy dynamics
- modeling spatial correlations in occupancy dynamics

Multiple-season study design
- relationship with single-season designs
- long-term design
- adding sites over time

SESSION 5 - December 14 Slides
Multi-species occupancy
- species co-occurrence (2 species) - single season
- species co-occurrence (2 species) - dynamics
- species richness or biodiversity
Multistate occupancy
- 3-state occupancy - single season
- 3-state occupancy - dynamics
other extensions
- Joint habitat-occupancy dynamics
- Incorporation of count data
- Marked animals
Summary


References

Synthetic Book

  • MacKenzie, D.I., J.D. Nichols, J.A. Royle, K.H. Pollock, L.L. Bailey, and, J.E. Hines. 2006. Occupancy estimation and modeling: inferring patterns and dynamics of species occurrence. Elsevier, San Diego, USA

Other Publications:

  • Bailey, L. L., T. R. Simons, and K. H. Pollock. 2004. Estimating site occupancy and species detection probability parameters for terrestrial salamanders. Ecological Applications 14: 692-702.
  • Barbraud, C. J. D. Nichols, J. E. Hines and H. Hafner. 2003. Estimating rates of extinction and colonization in colonial species and an extension to the metapopulation and community levels. Oikos 101:113-126.
  • MacKenzie, D.I., and J.A. Royle. 2005. Designing efficient occupancy studies: general advice and tips on allocation of survey effort. Journal of Applied Ecology 42: 1105-1114.
  • MacKenzie, D.I. 2005. What are the issues with ‘presence/absence’ data for wildlife managers? Journal of Wildlife Management 69: 849-860. MacKenzie, D.I. 2006. Modeling the probability of resource use: the effect of, and dealing with, detecting a species imperfectly. Journal of Wildlife Management 70: 367-374.
  • MacKenzie, D.I., J.D. Nichols, N. Sutton, K. Kawanishi and L.L. Bailey. 2005. Improving inferences in population studies of rare species that are detected imperfectly. Ecology 86:1101-1113.
  • MacKenzie, D.I. 2005. Was it there? Dealing with imperfect detection for species presence/absence data. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics 47: 65-74.
  • MacKenzie, D.I., and J.D. Nichols. 2004. Occupancy as a surrogate for abundance estimation. Animal Biodiversity and Conservation 27: 461-467.
  • MacKenzie, D.I., J.A. Royle, J.A. Brown, and J.D. Nichols. 2004. Occupancy estimation and modeling for rare and elusive populations. Pages 149-172 in W.L. Thompson (ed), Sampling Rare or Elusive Species. Island Press, Washington, D.C.


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