Patuxent Wildlife Research Center

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Decision Science - current studies

Sarah Converse

Email: sconverse@usgs.gov

Areas of Study

Ecology and Management of Wild and Captive Whooping Cranes

Population Viability of the Eastern Migratory Population of Whooping Cranes (Grus americana)

Publications

Servanty, S., S. J. Converse, and L. L. Bailey. 2014. Demography of a reintroduced population: moving toward management models for an endangered species, the whooping crane. Ecological Applications Online Early January 2 Abstract

Converse, S. J., C. T. Moore, and D. P. Armstrong. 2013. Demographics of reintroduced populations: Estimation, modeling, and decision analysis. Journal of Wildlife Management 77(6):1081-1093. Abstract

Converse, S. J., C. T. Moore, M. J. Folk, and M. C. Runge. 2013. A matter of tradeoffs: Reintroduction as a multiple objective decision. Journal of Wildlife Management 77(6):1145–1156. Abstract

Converse, S. J., J. A. Royle, P. H. Adler, R. P. Urbanek, and J. A. Barzen. 2013. A hierarchical nest survival model integrating incomplete temporally varying covariates. Ecology and Evolution 3 (13):4439-4447. Abstract

Mueller, T., R. B. O'Hara, S. J. Converse, R. P. Urbanek, and W. F. Fagan. 2013. Social learning of migratory performance. Science 341(6149):999-1002. Abstract

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Jim Nichols

Email: jnichols@usgs.gov

Areas of Study

Estimation of Wind Farm Mortality for Golden Eagles

Development of Methods Associated with Animal Population Dynamics

Development of Patch Occupancy Models for Assessing the Spatial Distribution of Organisms

Statistical Research at USGS - Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative

Inferences about Bat Populations: Mitigation Monitoring

Publications

Fernandez-Chacón, A., C. Stefanescu, M. Genovart, J. D. Nichols, J. E. Hines, F. Paramo, M. Turco, and D. Oro. 2014. Determinants of extinction-colonization dynamics in Mediterranean butterflies: the role of landscape, climate and local habitat features. Journal of Animal Ecology 83(1):276-285. Abstract

Bailey, L. L., D. I. MacKenzie, and J. D. Nichols. 2013. Advances and applications of occupancy models. Methods in Ecology and Evolution Online Early September 4. Abstract

Cam, E., O. Gimenez, R. Alpizar-Jara, L. M. Aubry, M. Authier, E. G. Cooch, D. N. Koons, W. A. Link, J.-Y. Monnat, J. D. Nichols, J. J. Rotella, J. A. Royle, and R. Pradel. 2013. Looking for a needle in a haystack: Inference about individual fitness components in a heterogeneous population. Oikos 122(5):739-753. Abstract

Fernindez-Chacón, A., C. Stefanescu, M. Genovart, J. D. Nichols, J. E. Hines, F. Piramo, M. Turco, and D. Oro. 2013. Determinants of extinction-colonization dynamics in Mediterranean butterflies: the role of landscape, climate and local habitat features. Journal of Animal Ecology Online Early August 19. Abstract

Grant, E. H. C., E. F. Zipkin, J. D. Nichols, and J. P. Campbell. 2013. A strategy for monitoring and managing declines in an amphibian community. Conservation Biology Online Early September 3. Abstract

Johnson, F. A., R. M. Dorazio, T. D. Castellón, J. Martin, J. O. Garcia, and J. D. Nichols. 2013. Tailoring point counts for inference about avian density: Dealing with nondetection and availability. Natural Resource Modeling Online Early Oct 1. Abstract

Kendall, W. L., J. E. Hines, J. D. Nichols, and E. H. C. Grant. 2013. Relaxing the closure assumption in occupancy models: Staggered arrival and departure times. Ecology 94(3):610-617. Abstract

Miller, D. A. W., J. D. Nichols, J. A. Gude, L. N. Rich, K. M. Podruzny, J. E. Hines, and M. S. Mitchell. 2013. Determining occurrence dynamics when false positives occur: estimating the range dynamics of wolves from public survey data. PLoS ONE 8(6):e65808. Abstract

Nichols, J. D. and B. K. Williams. 2013. Adaptive management. Pages A. H. El-Shaarawi and Walter W. Piegorsch, editors. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics. Second edition. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Hoboken, NJ. Abstract

Nichols, J. M., K. P. Judd, C. C. Olson, J. R. Waterman, and J. D. Nichols . 2013. Estimating detection and identification probabilities in maritime target acquisition. Applied Optics 52(12):2531-2545. Abstract

Péron, G., J. E. Hines, J. D. Nichols, W. L. Kendall, K. A. Peters, and D. S. Mizrahi. 2013. Estimation of bird and bat mortality at wind-power farms with superpopulation models. Journal of Applied Ecology 50(4 ):902-911. Abstract

Rich, L. N., R. E. Russell, E. M. Glenn, M. S. Mitchell, J. A. Gude, K. M. Podruzny, C. A. Sime, K. Laudon, D. E. Ausband, and J. D. Nichols. 2013. Estimating occupancy and predicting numbers of gray wolf packs in Montana using hunter surveys. Journal of Wildlife Management 77(6 ):1280–1289. Abstract

Smith, D. R., C. P. Mcgowan, J. P. Daily, J. D. Nichols, J. A. Sweka, and J. E. Lyons. 2013. Evaluating a multispecies adaptive management framework: Must uncertainty impede effective decision-making? Journal of Applied Ecology Online Early August 27. Abstract

Wen, Z., J. D. Nichols, K. H. Pollock, and P. M. Waser. 2013. A robust design capture-recapture model with multiple age classes augmented with population assignment data. Environmental and Ecological Statistics Online Early March 29. Abstract

Yackulic, C., R. Chandler, E. F. Zipkin, J. A. Royle, J. D. Nichols, E. H. C. Grant, and S. Veran. 2013. Presence-only modeling using MAXENT: when can we trust the inferences? Methods in Ecology and Evolution 4(3):236-243. Abstract

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Michael Runge

Email: mrunge@usgs.gov

Areas of Study

Structured Decision Making

Structured Decision Making: Methods, Applications, and Capacity-Building

Modeling, Estimation, and Adaptive Management of Golden and Bald Eagle Fatalities on Wind Facilities

Publications

Converse, S. J., C. T. Moore, M. J. Folk, and M. C. Runge. 2013. A matter of tradeoffs: Reintroduction as a multiple objective decision. Journal of Wildlife Management 77(6):1145–1156. Abstract

Regan, T. J., B. L. Taylor, G. G. Thompson, J. F. Cochran, K. Ralls, M. C. Runge, and R. Merrick. 2013. Testing decision rules for categorizing species' extinction risk to help develop quantitative listing criteria for the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Conservation Biology 27(4):821–831. Abstract

Runge, M. C. 2013. Active adaptive management for reintroduction of an animal population. Journal of Wildlife Management 77(6):1135–1144. Abstract

Runge, M. C., J. B. Grand, and M. S. Mitchell. 2013. Structured decision making. Pages 51-72 in Paul R. Krausman and James W. Cain, editors. Wildlife Management and conservation: Contemporary principles and practices. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, Maryland. 360 pp. Abstract

Thogmartin, W. E., C. A. Sanders-Reed, J. A. Szymanski, P. C. McKann, L. Pruitt, R. A. King, M. C. Runge, and R. E. Russell. 2013. White-nose syndrome is likely to extirpate the endangered Indiana bat over large parts of its range. Biological Conservation 160:162-172. Abstract

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Last Updated: January 2014

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